On the trail: Top Dem surrogates parachute into NH – Does it make a difference?

By PAUL STEINHAUSER

For the Monitor

Published: 11-01-2024 1:57 PM

Former President Bill Clinton returned to New Hampshire days before the election to campaign on behalf of Vice President Kamala Harris, Granite State Democratic gubernatorial nominee Joyce Craig, and down-ballot Democrats.

The stop in Nashua by the former president – who along with former President Barack Obama is crisscrossing the country in the closing weeks of the 2024 campaign - follows a trip earlier in the week to New Hampshire by a rising star in the Democratic Party, Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro.

"We feel good about where things are going, but you've got to run through the tape here in New Hampshire," Shapiro said during one of his multiple stops in the state on Wednesday.

While New Hampshire is not one of the seven crucial general election battleground states whose razor-thin margins decided President Joe Biden’s 2020 victory over then-President Donald Trump and are likely to determine if the former president or Harris wins the election, it’s still considered an important swing state, which has drawn considerable campaign traffic from Democrats.

Clinton and Shapiro were the latest high-profile surrogates to parachute into the state this summer and autumn. That list also includes Govs. Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan, JB Pritzker of Illinois, Gavin Newsom of California, and Maura Healy from next door in Massachusetts, as well as Sen. Cory Booker of New Jersey. Harris’ husband, Second Gentleman Doug Emhoff, and Minnesota First Lady Gwen Walz, the wife of Harris running mate Gov. Tim Walz, have also made stops in the Granite State.

However, Republicans haven’t sent similar high-profile surrogates to campaign for Trump and state GOP candidates.

Trump himself hasn’t set foot in the state since holding a victory celebration in Nashua in late January as he won the Republican presidential primary. 

Harris visited New Hampshire in September to hold a rally in North Hampton.

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But do such visits by well-known politicians make a difference?

“Surrogates at this stage in the race in New Hampshire are not likely to change voters’ minds. Where they have real value is in energizing the base and creating excitement for candidates up and down the ticket,” veteran New Hampshire based political scientist and New England College President Wayne Lesperance told the Monitor.

Pointing to Clinton’s famed “comeback kid” status from the 1992 Democratic presidential primary, Lesperance noted that the former president “has a special relationship with New Hampshire. His presence in particular is sure to energize party faithful and can help Democrats with their get out the vote efforts.”

A Saint Anselm College Survey Center poll found Harris had a slim lead in New Hampshire with 51% support among likely voters in New Hampshire, with Trump at 46%.

Any GOP backing Harris?

While Trump holds vast sway over the GOP, the Harris campaign has been making a concerted effort nationwide to court disaffected Republicans – many of whom supported former U.N. ambassador and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley in the GOP presidential primaries.

A top surrogate in that effort nationally is former U.S. Rep. Liz Cheney, a one-time rising conservative star who has vowed to do everything she can to make sure Trump doesn’t return to the White House.

This week, three well-known Granite State Republicans joined that effort, by endorsing the vice president instead of Trump.

The three are former U.S. Sen Gordon Humphrey, who led a protest against Trump on the floor of the 2016 Republican National Convention in Cleveland, Ohio, former state Supreme Court Justice Chuck Douglas, who has published anti-Trump opinion pieces, and former state attorney general Tom Rath, a longtime Republican consultant who was a top adviser to then-Ohio Gov. John Kasich’s 2016 presidential nomination race against Trump.

The Harris campaign sees New Hampshire as fertile ground in their effort to court Republicans – as they point to Haley’s strong second-place finish to Trump in January’s GOP presidential primary.

A former Haley supporter and Trump critic, New Hampshire Governor Chris Sununu, has not switched sides. He and Republican candidate for Governor Kelly Ayotte both endorsed the former president ahead of Election Day.   

Former Vice President Mike Pence, who was in New Hampshire Thursday night, said he won’t endorse either Trump or Harris.