Opinion: A bad idea returns
Published: 09-20-2024 3:52 PM |
Adam Czarkowski works in the technology sector and lives in Penacook.
The commuter rail expansion project is a lot like Michael Myers in the Halloween franchise. Just when you think it is dead it pops back up again. This time it is governor candidate Joyce Craig that has resurrected this idea. This makes me question candidate Craig’s commitment to taxpayers and common sense.
For those that aren’t aware, for more than a decade the state of New Hampshire has considered extending the commuter rail network which would allow train travel from Manchester, through Nashua to Boston. A large study was conducted in 2014 to cover feasibility, ridership and financials. In 2014 this made sense. In 2014 most office workers went into the office five days a week. A lot has happened since 2014.
The first problem with the commuter rail plan is ridership. For this to be viable it would need daily riders. Those daily riders would need to be office workers taking the train into Boston. According to a recent Gallup poll 53% of remote-capable workers work a hybrid schedule. A hybrid schedule involves days in the office and days worked at home. With over half of office workers not commuting five days a week, who will be the customer base that would make this sustainable?
In addition to the lack of commuters is the problem with Boston’s office vacancy rates. The Boston office market has posted eight consecutive quarters of increased vacancies according to Colliers. Also, according to Colliers, overall occupied office space in Boston has declined by over 19 million square feet since March of 2020. Fewer commuters and less office space does not sound like a winning combination for commuter rail.
The second problem is American culture. A few years ago, I took a business trip to the United Kingdom. I took a train from London to Leicester and truly enjoyed it. While working with one of my UK colleagues I mentioned the train ride was my first and I was 43 years old. My colleague replied, “That is the most American thing I have ever heard.”
We have a car-based transportation culture in this country. I am not comfortable gambling so much taxpayer money on a strategy that involves extending the rail line and then crossing our fingers people will change the way they have traveled their entire life.
The final problem is the costs. The last time this was resurrected in 2023 the estimated costs were $782 million for initial construction according to WMUR. Even if approved last year it wouldn’t start construction until 2028 so it could easily balloon to over $1 billion. That is just the initial construction costs. That doesn’t include operational costs to run empty trains between Manchester and Boston seven days a week. Taxpayers would be on the hook for that.
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They can keep making Halloween movies, but let’s put the commuter rail expansion idea to bed permanently.