On the trail: Second-tier New Hampshire?

Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker is set to make a trip to New Hampshire this weekend.

Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker is set to make a trip to New Hampshire this weekend. PAUL STEINHAUSER—For the Monitor

By PAUL STEINHAUSER

For the Monitor

Published: 08-30-2024 11:46 AM

Modified: 08-30-2024 12:16 PM


Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker heads to New Hampshire this holiday weekend, to campaign on behalf of Vice President Kamala Harris, her running mate Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, as well as down-ballot Democrats running in this year’s elections.

Pritzker on Sunday will team up with volunteers at a launch in Bedford, and on Monday he’ll rally with union members at the New Hampshire AFL-CIO’s annual Labor Day breakfast in Manchester.

Pritzker becomes the latest high-profile Democratic surrogate to parachute into New Hampshire.

Already stumping in the Granite State this summer – Second Gentleman Doug Emhoff, Govs. Chistine Whitmer of Michigan and Gavin Newsom of California, and U.S. Rep. Ro Khanna.

But neither Harris nor Walz have stopped in the state during the general election. Nor has President Joe Biden, who was the Democrats’ 2024 nominee before ending his re-election campaign six weeks ago and endorsing his vice president.

On the Republican side, former President Donald Trump hasn’t visited New Hampshire since his primary victory celebration in Nashua in late January. And his running mate – U.S. Sen. JD Vance of Ohio – hasn’t set foot in the state since coming on board the GOP ticket over a month ago.

While New Hampshire’s seen no traffic from the Democratic and Republican running mates this summer, it’s been bumper to bumper in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona, and Nevada, the seven battleground states that were closely contested in the 2020 presidential election and are likely once again to determine the outcome of the 2024 White House showdown.

“We’re definitely now a second-tier swing state,” said University of New Hampshire political science professor Dante Scala.

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While New Hampshire remains a very competitive general election state, it’s been 24 years since a Republican won the state’s four electoral votes. You have to go back to then-Texas Gov. George W. Bush, who carried the state in his 2000 White House election.

Trump lost New Hampshire by a razor-thin margin eight years ago to 2016 Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton, but four years ago he was defeated by Biden by seven points in New Hampshire.

Fast-forward four years and Biden enjoyed a small advantage over Trump in public opinion polling in the Granite State until his disastrous performance in a late-June debate against his White House predecessor. In the wake of that debate, polls indicated a margin-of-error race in New Hampshire.

“We’re competitive if nationally the electorate leans towards the Republican. We saw that in the beginning of the summer,” Scala noted.

But Harris has enjoyed a wave of momentum and energy since taking over for Biden atop the Democrats’ ticket and the latest polling in New Hampshire indicates the vice president holds a single-digit lead over the former president.

“Six weeks ago – before President Biden bowed out of his re-election campaign, there were numerous headlines focused on New Hampshire as a battleground state. Today, polls show a significant lead for Harris-Walz and most prognosticators have moved New Hampshire into the blue column,” said longtime New Hampshire-based political scientist Wayne Lesperance, the president of New England College in Henniker.

“As a result, the two campaigns are not likely to bring their shows to the state instead focusing on battleground states that are effectively in a dead heat,” Lesperance said.

While the Democrats have enjoyed trips from high-profile surrogates – many of whom may have national ambitions in the future – little traffic has been seen on the Republican side. But sources say that Republican National Committee chair Michael Whatley will likely stop in New Hampshire on Sept. 18 for an “election integrity” event.

“We all like to think we’re unique and immune from national trends. But we rise and fall with the national tide,” Scala said.

“We are very much like Minnesota at this point,” Scala added as he pointed towards another competitive general-election state where the Democrats have also enjoyed a long winning streak in presidential contests. “Under the proper circumstances where there’s a Republican leading nationally, then Minnesota becomes competitive, New Hampshire becomes competitive.”