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Campaign 2008
 
Poll shows Dems retain lead
Obama makes gains in New Hampshire
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October 21, 2008 - 10:20 am

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Related articles:
Monitor poll: Obama leads, but McCain can still win (10/31/2008)

Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Barack Obama has widened his lead over Republican Sen. John McCain in New Hampshire, a new Monitor poll shows. The poll also showed Democrats holding leads in every major state race.

Likely voters picked Obama over McCain, 50 to 43 percent, giving Obama a margin that has nearly doubled from the 4-point spread shown in last month's poll. The new poll of 600 people, conducted for the Monitor Oct. 17 to 19 by the polling firm Research 2000, has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

Obama has solidified his support, according to the poll, with 45 percent of those polled proclaiming themselves "firm" in supporting the Illinois senator. McCain, an Arizona senator, garnered the firm backing of 40 percent of those polled. Still, 15 percent of those polled said they could change their minds, leaving the race still fluid with two weeks to go before Election Day.

The poll also details McCain's fabled relationship with New Hampshire voters, who have given the senator two unlikely primary wins, in 2000 and 2008. Forty-one percent of those polled recalled voting for McCain before, either in 2000 or 2008, including 30 percent of Democrats and 45 percent of independents. That number may demonstrate that many of those polled felt they could have voted for McCain at one point or another.

But that history doesn't necessarily mean that McCain has a deeper reservoir of good feeling in New Hampshire, at least as judged by the poll's favorability question, essentially a test of whether voters like a politician.

Of those surveyed, 55 percent said they view Obama favorably, while 33 percent said they view him unfavorably, giving him a net favorability rating of 22 percent. For McCain, that number is 1 percent, with 45 percent saying they view him favorably and 44 percent saying they view him unfavorably.

"I would say he's lost a lot of appeal in New Hampshire," said pollster Del Ali.

New Hampshire's numbers are about average nationally for McCain, Ali said. For example, Ali points to a recent poll he did in Wisconsin, where McCain has a net favorability of negative 1 and Obama has a net of positive 24.

Voters interviewed at random in Concord yesterday reflected that split.

Retired housewife Lois Alenson of Concord, walking through Eagle Square downtown yesterday, said she used to like McCain. "Well, so far as Republicans go, I thought he was okay. I liked him. I've changed my opinion now," said Alenson, a 76-year-old Democrat who said she will vote for Obama. "I couldn't today say I would trust his judgment."

Alenson said she finds it "horrifying" to think of McCain's running mate, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, being a "heartbeat away" from the presidency. "They say people like this Palin because they say she's just like me," Alenson said. "I wouldn't want anybody just like me running the government."

Alenson isn't alone. Asked in the Monitor poll whether Palin's selection made them more or less likely to vote for McCain, 18 percent said they were more likely and 31 percent said they were less likely. Among independents, 13 percent said they were more likely and 37 percent said they were less likely.

Further up Main Street yesterday, Scott Leppard of Loudon carried a McCain-Palin sign toward his pickup truck. Leppard, a 39-year-old Warner police sergeant and a lifelong Republican, said he had supported McCain in both the 2000 and 2008 primaries, as well as now.

"I think McCain is a straight shooter; he speaks from his heart," Leppard said. Moreover, Leppard said, Obama lacks what it takes. "I think Obama has no experience when it comes to national security, no experience when it comes to foreign policy."

Leppard's views are also reflected in the poll. Forty-nine percent said they thought McCain would be better at handling an unexpected crisis, while 44 percent picked Obama. McCain also had an edge when asked who would say something "unpopular if right," leading Obama 42 to 41 percent.



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