Few junior senators elicit such passion: "I love him, I think," said Arnie Arnesen, a political analyst and former radio talk show host. "He's everything we want. You know why? Because he doesn't have a record. He's charming, he's attractive, he's articulate. He's our Rorschach test."
One day after Barack Obama, the first-term U.S. senator from Illinois, opened the door to a possible 2008 presidential bid, New Hampshire Democrats praised Obama's oratory abilities. They lauded his charisma, his wit and his willingness to acknowledge that he's considering a presidential run. ("I reveled in his honesty," Arnesen said. Which was more than she would say for Sen. Hillary Clinton: "Hillary, just say it. You make me gag when you don'tsay it.")
But Obama's rapid ascent doesn't come baggage-free, some Democrats warned. After two years in the U.S. Senate and seven years in the Illinois state Senate, some wondered if Obama, 45, was ready for the Oval Office.
"He's obviously very smart. He's obviously very popular. He has star power. He may have more experience with Vogue and Annie Leibovitz than he does on the Senate floor," said Chris Gallagher, a prominent Bill Clinton supporter and attorney at Gallagher, Callahan & Gartrell. "There seems to be no perfect package at the moment combining experience, substance and electability."
In the post-Sept. 11 world, foreign policy experience is integral to a successful presidential bid, said Del Ali, president of Research 2000, the Maryland-based nonpartisan polling firm that has conducted New Hampshire polls for the Monitor. "Issues that deal with terrorism, defense, that's where I think . . . he could run into trouble."
If Ali were a betting man, he'd put his money on Obama sitting this presidential election out. "I think his best avenue to the White House is through the vice presidency." For the bottom of the ticket, Ali said, "he is nothing but an asset."
Experience, however, works both ways.
"He has a tremendous amount of credibility in both parties as someone who works in a bipartisan manner. The longer he stays in the Senate, the less chance he has of staying bipartisan," said Wayne Lesperance, an associate professor of political science at New England College. "Every senator believes they can be president. So he becomes less and less remarkable as time goes on."
Experience aside, there's race. Obama - the son of a white Kansan woman and a black Kenyan man, and the first African-American president of the Harvard Law Review - would be the country's first black president. "No one wants to talk about it," Ali said. But in southern states, race would figure prominently. "They'll never tell pollsters. . . .But these states are in the Sun Belt. And even in the Midwest, you're still dealing with that issue." Many analysts are closely watching the U.S. Senate race of Harold Ford in Tennessee. If elected, Ford would be the first black senator from the South since Reconstruction.
Obama "is a multi-racial, multi-ethnic person who represents the future of this country," said Ernesto Sagas, assistant professor of political science at Southern New Hampshire University. "The question is: Is the country ready for him?"
Obama's pseudo-announcement - in which he backed away from previous statements that he wasn't considering a run - took place on Sunday, in an interview with Tim Russert on NBC's Meet the Press.
"I don't want to be coy about this. Given the responses that I've been getting over the last several months, I have thought about the possibility, but I have not thought about it with the seriousness and depth that I think is required," Obama said. "My main focus right now is in '06 and making sure that we retake the Congress. After Nov. 7, I'll sit down and consider it."
In New Hampshire, Obama is relatively late to the game. The political jockeying began months (some might say years) ago, and local Democrats are already lining up behind prospective candidates.
"We've been lucky to have all these candidates who've been in it for a long time be back up here, so many in activist circles have already been getting to know them. There are already some allegiances," said Sen. Sylvia Larsen, a Democrat from Concord.
Obama, unlike Sen. Joe Biden or John Edwards, has yet to make the Granite State rounds. But the door isn't closed yet.
Single page | 1 | 2
|